PUP-Fact Asia
Research Collaboration

PUP Quezon City Branch, PUP Research Management Office, and Fact Asia Consultants Ltd.


Disclaimer Notice:

In order to ensure the accuracy of the information included in this publication, the PUP-FactAsia Collaborating Team has exercised all due diligence and taken the necessary steps to achieve the study goals and objectives. However, the material that has been published is being distributed without any kind of warranty, either express or implicit, of any kind. The reader is the one who is accountable for the correct interpretation and application of the information presented. Under no circumstances will the PUP-FactAsia be held liable for damages that may be incurred as a result of its use.

ContentSummary

Tobacco Taxes in the Philippines

How much money has the Philippine government collected in tobacco excise taxes since 2000? -before the SIN tax law (compare trends)

Options

Table

Table 1. Tax on specific goods and services: Tobacco Products (Philippine Peso, Millions) per year (before SIN Tax law)

Source

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021, July 21). Details of Tax Revenue - Philippines. Retrieved May 9, 2022, from https://stats.oecd.org

The prediction graph is based on the taxes from year 2000 to 2020.

The model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.827

Prediction Graph

Prediction Table

Additional Info

Before the SIN Tax law was passed, the average cigarette tax from 2000 to 2012 was 24,315 PHP (in Millions). On the other hand, between 2013 and 2020, the average amount of tax paid was 113,505 PHP (in Millions). Did you know that between 2012 and 2013, the tax rates on tobacco products went up by 117% because of the SIN Tax Law?

Number of deaths in smoking and EVALI

What is the most recent estimate of people who have died from combustible cigarette tobacco smoking since 2000?

Options

Deaths - Smoking vs. EVALI (E-cigarette or Vaping Use-Associated Lung Injury)

1,641,252 1

Cause of Death

PUP-FACT ASIA RESEARCH COLLABORATION

Table

Table 2. Deaths - Cause: Risk: Smoking and their income classifications

Table

Table 2.2. Deaths - Smoking vs. EVALI (E-cigarette or Vaping Use-Associated Lung Injury)

Coverage Year (Death) 2000-2019
Smoking
EVALI
1,641,252
1

Source

Our World in Data. (2017). Number of deaths from smoking in 1990 vs. 2019. Retrieved June 9, 2022, from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/smoking-deaths-1990-2017

Department of Health. (n.d.). Tobacco control key facts and figures: Department of Health Website. Retrieved June, from https://doh.gov.ph/Tobacco-Control-Key-facts-and-Figures

World Health Organization. (2022, May 24). Tobacco. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

The prediction graph is based on the deaths in smoking from year 2000 to 2019.

The model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.606

Prediction Graph

Prediction Table

Additional Info

The average death from smoking between year 2000 to 2019 is 82062.6

Did you know that there is an average increase of 2%yearly in deaths that involves smoking

Mortality rate in terms of Tobacco

What is the best estimate of mortality rate in terms of:
A. Total number of Filipino lives lost prematurely from combustible tobacco since 2000?
B. What are the estimated average mortality rate due to external factors, smoking, EVALI, and top leading diseases from year 2000-2019?

Options

Deaths: External Factors, Smoking, EVALI, and Top Leading Diseases(Philippines)

33,125.96
84,071.72
0.05
67,335.81

Cause of Death (2000-2019)
PUP-FACT ASIA RESEARCH COLLABORATION

Table

Table 3. Mortality Rate: Cause: Risk-Smoking (Estimate); 2000-2019; Philippines

Table

Table 3.2. Deaths: External Factors, Smoking, EVALI, and Top Leading diseases in the Philippines

Coverage Year (Death)
External Factors
Deaths
EVALI
Top
Average
33,125.96
84,071.72
0.05
67,335.81

Sources

Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2013, May 23). Smoking. Our World in Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/smoking

PSA Files on Population

2000 Philippine Health Statistics View
2001 Philippine Health Statistics View
2002 Philippine Health Statistics View
2003 Philippine Health Statistics View
2004 Philippine Health Statistics View
2005 Philippine Health Statistics View
2006 Philippine Health Statistics View
2007 Philippine Health Statistics View
2008 Philippine Health Statistics View
2009 Philippine Health Statistics View
2010 Philippine Health Statistics View
2011 Philippine Health Statistics View
2012 Philippine Health Statistics View
2013 Philippine Health Statistics View
2014 Philippine Health Statistics View
2015 Philippine Health Statistics View
2016 Philippine Health Statistics View
2017 Philippine Health Statistics View
2018 Philippine Health Statistics View
2019 Philippine Health Statistics View

PSA Files on Population. Retrieved from https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1W1B8oxL6H0ac03-tWu28RRDs_VOD72Vt?usp=sharing

Additional Info

Mortality rate

A mortality rate is a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval. Morbidity and mortality measures are often the same mathematically; it's just a matter of what you choose to measure, illness or death.

Source

https://www.cdc.gov

Different Diseases Deaths Southeast Asian Countries

How many people have died in Southeast Asian countries because of the diseases like:

Communicable Diseases
B20-B24 HIV/AIDS
A15-A19 Tuberculosis
U07.1 COVID-19
Non-Communicable Diseases
A90 Dengue Fever
B50-B54 Malaria
Risk Factors
E66 Obesity
Z72.0 Alcohol Use
Z72.1 Smoking

Some Essential Information

Communicable diseases, also known as infectious diseases or transmissible diseases, are disorders caused by the infection, presence, and proliferation of pathogenic (disease-causing) biologic agents in a single human or animal host

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), also known as chronic diseases, tend to be of long duration and are the result of a combination of genetic, physiological, environmental, and behavioural factors.

Risk Factors, are Something that increases the chance of developing a disease. Some risk factors for cancer include age, a family history of certain cancers, use of tobacco products, Exposure to radiation or certain chemicals, infection with certain viruses or bacteria, and certain genetic changes.



Table

Different Diseases Deaths Globally and Philippines



Val (Value) - Mean Estimate

Upper - 97.5% Percentile Estimate.

Lower - 2.5% Percentile Estimate.

Table 4. Number of Deaths (mean estimate), both sexes, All Ages, Communicable: HIV/AIDS: Southeast Asia (2000-2019)

Download

Sources

Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Results Seattle, United States: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2020. Available from https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/h


Our World in Data. (2021). Number of Deaths by Cause, World, 2019. Retrieved May 30, 2022, from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause.


Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2022, January). Smoking. Retrieved May 28, 2022, from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-by-risk-factor.


Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rod├ęs-Guirao, L., Appel, C., Giattino, C., Ortiz-Ospina, E., . . . Roser, M. (2020). Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19). Retrieved June 1, 2022, from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus.


The prediction graph is based on the data of different Southeast Asian Countries from year 2000 to 2019.

B20-B24 HIV/AIDS model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.646

A15-A19 Tuberculosis model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.984

A90 Dengue Fever model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.154

Z72.0 Alcohol Use model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.992

E66 Obesity model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.947

Z72.1 Smoking model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.998

Predictions

Prediction Table

Additional Info

The table shows the average increase per year on deaths in different diseases and different Southeast Asian countries from year 2000 to 2019

Data shows that in HIV/AIDS,  Laos  have the highest increase yearly with  13%  average increase

Oppositely,  Cambodia  is the lowest with -7%  average increase

Data shows that in Tuberculosis,  All Countries  is equal or below  0%  average increase

Data shows that in Malaria,  Indonesia  is the highest with 7%  average increase

Oppositely,  Thailand  is the lowest with -18%  average increase

Data shows that in Dengue Fever,  Timor-Leste  is the highest with 18%  average increase

Oppositely,  Myanmar  is the lowest with -4%  average increase

Data shows that in Alcohol,  Vietnam  is the highest with 8%  average increase

Oppositely,  Malaysia, Indonesia and Laos  is the lowest with 1%  average increase

Data shows that in Obesity,  Vietnam and Timor-Leste  is the highest with 8%  average increase

Oppositely,  Singapore  is the lowest with 3%  average increase

Data shows that in Smoking,  Timor-Leste  is the highest with 4%  average increase

Oppositely,  Myanmar  is the lowest with -1%  average increase

Did you know that based on the prediction data there is a chance that the number of deaths in HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Dengue may lower on the upcoming years.

But deaths in Obesity, Alcohol use and Smoking can be higher on the upcoming years.

Smoking as a Risk Factor

How many people have died (since 2000) due to smoking as a risk factor for the following diseases? (Philippines)
I20-I25 Ischemic heart disease
I69.4 Stroke
J20-J22 Lower respiratory infections
J44 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
A15-A19 Tuberculosis
C33-C34 Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer

Options

Table

Val (Value) - Mean Estimate

Upper - 97.5% Percentile Estimate.

Lower - 2.5% Percentile Estimate.

Table 5. Number of Deaths (mean estimate), both sexes, All Ages, Risk: Smoking (2000-2019) in the Philippines

Source

Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Results. Seattle, United States: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2020. Available from https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/.

The prediction graph is based on the data of Smoking as a Risk Factor from year 2000 to 2019.

I20-I25 Ischemic heart disease model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.002

J20-J22 Lower respiratory infections model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.056

J44 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.107

A15-A19 Tuberculosis model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.020

Predictions

Prediction Table

Additional Info

Average Yearly Increase

Data shows that Tracheal bronchus and lung cancer have the highest increase yearly with a 36% average increase.

Did you know that based on the prediction data the number of deaths in, Tuberculosis from 2019 to 2030 (Prediction) may rise to 46% while Lower respiratory infections may rise up to 62%, Ischemic heart disease may rise up to 28% and Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may lower up to -31%.

Deaths caused by different external factors

While smoking is a risk factor for death in the Philippines, how many died as a result of the following external risk (death-causing injuries):
X40-X49 Household cleaning fluids
Z58.2 Dirty water/unsafe water source
A05.0-A05.9 Food poisoning
V01-V89 Accidents by land transportation
Y09 Assault (Murder/homicide)
X60-X84 Intentional self-harm (Suicide)
Nicotine poisoning (death from ingesting pure nicotine)
Vaping nicotine
Side effects of prescribed medications (all)
Side effects of pharmaceutical smoking cessation products such as Chantix

Options

Some Essential Information

External cause of death, An external cause of death, as mentioned in chapter XX of the WHO's ICD-10, is a death due to accidents and violence including environmental events, circumstances, and conditions as the cause of injury, poisoning, and other adverse effects.

Comparison Graph

The data shows the comparison between deaths of External Factors and deaths on Smoking.

Comparison Table

Deaths - Cause: Risk: External Factors over Deaths - Cause: Risk: Smoking (2000-2019)

Download

Table

Table 6. Deaths - Cause: External Factors - Risk: Sex: Both - Age: All Ages (per 100,000 Population)

Sources

Department of Health National Epidemiology Cente. (2019, July 1). Philippine Health Statistics 2016: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2016 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/publication/serials/

Department of Health National Epidemiology Cente. (2020, June 1). Philippine Health Statistics 2017: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2017 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/22441

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, February 22). Philippine Health Statistics 2012: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2012 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/5073

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 13). 2001 Philippine Health Statistics. Philippine Health Statistics 2001 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2731

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 14). Philippine Health Statistics 2002: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2002 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2721

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 15). Philippine Health Statistics 2003: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2003 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2720

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 16). Philippine Health Statistics 2004: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2004 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2719

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 17). Philippine Health Statistics 2005: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2005 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2718

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 18). Philippine Health Statistics 2006: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2006 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2717

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 19). Philippine Health Statistics 2007: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2007 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2716

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 20). Philippine Health Statistics 2008: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2008 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2710

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 21). Philippine Health Statistics 2009: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2009 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2707

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 22). Philippine Health Statistics 2010: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2010 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2706

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, January 25). Philippine Health Statistics 2011: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2011 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2705

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2016, May 6). Philippine Health Statistics 2013: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2013 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/5934

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2018, January 19). Philippine Health Statistics 2014: Department of Health website. Philippine Health Statistics 2014 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/12622

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2020, September 9). Philippine Health Statistics 2018: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2018 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/24432

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (2021, September 23). Philippine Health Statistics 2019: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2019 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/32777

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center . (n.d.). Philippine Health Statistics 2014: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2014 | Department of Health website. Retrieved June 13, 2022, from https://doh.gov.ph/node/12622

Department of Health National Epidemiology Center. (2016, January 12). Philippine Health Statistics 2000. Philippine Health Statistics 2000 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/2732

https://doh.gov.ph/PHS2015. (2018, December 27). Philippine Health Statistics 2015: Department of Health Website. Philippine Health Statistics 2015 | Department of Health website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/PHS2015

Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2013, May 23). Smoking. Our World in Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/smoking This article was first published in May 2013; it was revised substantially in November 2019; and partly updated in January 2022.

The prediction graph is based on the data of deaths by different external factors from year 2000 to 2019.

Z58.2 Dirty water/unsafe water source model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.678

V01-V89 Accidents by land transportation model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.423

Y09 Assault (Murder/homicide) model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.135

X60-X84 Intentional self-harm (Suicide) model is created using Linear Regression with an R² of 0.461

Predictions

Prediction Table

Download

Additional Info

Deaths in External Factor is 663,584 , while deaths from smoking are 1,641,252 which has an 84.8362% difference. Which indicates that smoking is far worse than deaths by external factors .
Did you know that based on the predictions model there is a possibility that deaths by Z58.2 Dirty water/unsafe water source and Y09 Assault (Murder/homicide) may lower in the upcoming years. While V01-V89 Accidents by land transportation and X60-X84 Intentional self-harm (Suicide) may increase in the upcoming years.

Total number of vapers in the Philippines

Table

Table 7. Total number of vapers in the Philippines

Source

GATS | Philippines. (2018, January 10). 2015 Philippine Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) country report: Department of Health Website. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/node/12493

Additional Info

According to Johns Hopkins Medicine, vaping is less dangerous than smoking, but it's still not safe, and research indicates vaping is harmful to the heart and lungs.

Total number of smokers in the Philippines

Options

Before SIN TAX

27,498
18,014,567
82,575.14

PUP-FACT ASIA RESEARCH COLLABORATION

After SIN TAX

108,349
17,955,217
93,598

PUP-FACT ASIA RESEARCH COLLABORATION

Table

Table 8. Estimated prevalence current tobacco users ages 15 years old and above (Philippines)

Table

Table 8.2. Comparison: Tobacco Excise Tax, Numbers of Smokers, and Total Death due to Risk of Smoking Before SIN Tax Law

TAXES (in Million Php)
Number of Smokers
Total Deaths:Cause:Risk:Smoking
Average
27,498
18,014,567
82,575.14

Table

Table 8.3. Comparison: Tobacco Excise Tax, Numbers of Smokers, and Total Death due to Risk of Smoking After SIN Tax Law

TAXES (in Million Php)
Number of Smokers
Total Deaths:Cause:Risk:Smoking
Average
108,349
17,955,217
93,598

Source

Lifted from The World Bank | Data World Development Indicators (2022).

2000 Philippine Health Statistics View
2005 Philippine Health Statistics View
2007 Philippine Health Statistics View
2010 Philippine Health Statistics View
2012 Philippine Health Statistics View
2014 Philippine Health Statistics View
2015 Philippine Health Statistics View
2016 Philippine Health Statistics View
2018 Philippine Health Statistics View
2019 Philippine Health Statistics View

Additional Info

Did you know that the percentage of smokers has climbed the highest from 2014-2015,  with a 5% increase, and that the Philippines has seen the greatest decline in the number of smokers in recent years from 2016-2019?